"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" on December 8 In just a few days, many places in China have successively released robot support documents, adding another fire to the already hot humanoid robot track.
On December 6, the "Anhui Provincial Humanoid Robot Industry Development Action Plan (2024-2027)" researched and drafted by the Anhui Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology was officially released. On December 5, Chongqing issued several policies and measures to support the innovation and development of the embodied intelligent robot industry; On the same day, the Hangzhou Municipal Administration for Market Regulation signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement to support the high-quality development standards of Hangzhou's robot industry.
2024 is about to come to an end, and there is no doubt that humanoid robots are one of the most concerned science and technology hotspots this year: industry policies have been introduced one after another, giants such as Nvidia, Huawei, and Tesla have increased their layout, major investment and financing events are intensive, and the stock prices of concept stocks in the secondary market have risen sharply......
Standing at the intersection between 2024 and 2025 and looking to the future, where will humanoid robots go? What to look forward to in 2025?
"The era of robots is coming"
In a recent speech, Nvidia head Jensen Huang chanted on stage, "The era of robots is coming." "
Looking back at 2024, the Agility robot has entered the Schaeffler factory, Xpeng robots have also begun to enter the factory to "screw the screws", and the 1X robot has learned to fry steaks, not to mention Tesla's Optimus (Optimus) robot flexibility has reached a new level - these "silicon-based life" have already obtained the entry ticket to human society.
Tesla has previously revealed on the earnings call that it is expected that the sales volume of the Optimus "Optimus Prime" humanoid robot in 2025 will be 1,000 units, mainly used in Tesla's own factories, and will be gradually sold to the outside world in 2026.
Guosen Securities gave a view in a research report on December 4 that Tesla's robot products are rapidly iterating, which is expected to bring a "catfish effect" to the global robot market and stimulate the vitality of humanoid robot players. Under the premise of high commonality between vehicle and robot parts, superimposed with the blessing of large manufacturers entering the market + technology iteration + policy catalysis, the development of humanoid robots is expected to continue to advance, and 2025 is expected to become the first year of mass production.
Along with the gradual development of the humanoid robot industry, it is natural that the high performance and mass production expectations will be improved, as well as the industry's attention.
Reviewing the previous markets of the humanoid robot index from 2022 to 2024, China Securities Construction Investment pointed out that the mass production expectation and performance improvement expectation of humanoid robots are important driving factors leading the market
Round 1 (2022.06.17-2022.08.25): The Humanoid Robot Index has an excess return of 31.74% compared with the CSI 300 Index, mainly due to Tesla's warm-up for AI DAY 2022 and the announcement of the display of humanoid robot prototypes;
The second round (2022.12.30-2023.07.04): The index has an excess return of 60.05% compared with the CSI 300 Index, on the one hand, due to Tesla's continuous update of the progress of humanoid robots, and on the other hand, humanoid robots have been valued as an important application end of large models;
The third round (2024.02.05-2024.03.20): 39.48% of the excess return compared with the CSI 300 Index, due to the warm-up of NVIDIA GTC conference and the launch of humanoid robot large models and software and hardware support;
The fourth round (2024.09.20-2024.11.24): 38.37% of the excess return compared with the CSI 300 Index, on the one hand, the market risk appetite has improved; On the other hand, the Tesla Robotaxi conference showcased Optimus and demonstrated Optimus' autonomy.
The price of humanoid robot products has gradually declined, and domestic parts have ushered in new machines
Back to the robot itself. If the evolution of performance has enabled robots to achieve the practicality of "running, standing up, and working", then it is cost that can make this practicality spread out on a larger scale.
Recalling that when Xiaomi released its first full-size humanoid bionic robot CyberOne "Tieda" in 2022, Lei Jun once revealed that the cost of each unit was about 600,000 or 700,000 yuan. But now, robots with a price range of 200,000-300,000 yuan have also appeared, such as Kepler K1, which is priced at about 30,000 US dollars for a single overseas unit. Tesla revealed that the estimated price of the Optimus will be within 20,000 US dollars (about 150,000 yuan).
But Musk also admitted in November that Optimus is a very complex robot and that "it will be very difficult to bring the cost down to $20,000." It's not easy at all, but it will come true eventually. To achieve this, production needs to exceed 1 million units per year. The price will be determined by demand, but the final price will also reach about $20,000. "
In order to achieve the goal of price reduction, robot manufacturers are seeking breakthroughs in technology research and development on the one hand, and on the other hand, they are seeking to increase the replacement rate of localized devices.
According to the "2024 Artificial Intelligence Index Report" released by Stanford HAI, China's robot installations already rank first in the world; Similarly, the majority of the world's AI patents (61%) come from China.
In the subdivision of the industrial chain, brokerages pointed out that from the perspective of market space, the value of core components such as planetary roller screws, six-dimensional torque sensors, and frameless torque motors accounted for more than 10%; The original market space for core components such as planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers is small, and the market volume of humanoid robots is expected to bring greater flexibility.
From the perspective of market maturity, the industry market such as planetary roller screws, six-dimensional torque sensors, tactile sensors, and software systems is still in the early stage of development, and there is a large space for technology/process iteration.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, planetary roller screws, six-dimensional torque sensors, tactile sensors, coreless motors, and software systems are the core links with large room for improvement in current localization, and they are also components with high technical barriers.
Analysts further pointed out that the humanoid robot industry is expected to transition from the industrial formation period to the industrial expansion period, and the industrialization development is expected to accelerate significantly. With the continuous breakthrough of AGI technology, the improvement of the supply chain pattern, and the continuous opening of downstream application demand, the humanoid robot industry, as the pearl of the high-end manufacturing growth sector, will usher in plate investment opportunities in 2025.