Tesla CEO Musk threw out a weighty prediction at the Saudi-American Investment Forum on May 14, 2025: humanoid robots will eventually number in the tens of billions, far exceeding the size of the global population, and radically transforming the economic landscape. He pointed out that when robots take over most of the production activities, goods and services will be greatly enriched, and the human income model will shift from "labor compensation" to "technology dividend distribution", moving towards the era of "universal high income", and even the ideal state of "great material abundance" may occur.
1.Tesla Optimus: From factory to home
As the centerpiece of this vision, the Tesla Optimus robot has already demonstrated technological breakthroughs:
1)Industrial Scenario
At the Fremont factory pilot line, Optimus Gen-3 completes precision assembly with 22 degrees of freedom, improving quality control efficiency by 320% and highlighting the potential for automated production.
2)Family Scene
In the Saudi Arabia demonstration, the robot completes dance movements with a bionic gait, with significantly improved dynamic balance and environmental adaptability, heralding its penetration into the field of family services.
3)Industry Status and Growth Expectations
Currently, the humanoid robot industry is at a critical stage from technology validation to commercialization:
2024 Data
- Penetration rate of home-assisted robots exceeds 15%.
- Order volume of medical care robots increased by 237% year-on-year
- Aging demand drives segmentation explosion
Institutional Forecast
- The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) predicts that more than 60% of households in the world will be equipped with humanoid robots in 2030, which will mainly be responsible for cleaning and nursing care tasks.
- Goldman Sachs predicts that the global market will reach US$154 billion in 2035.
- CRRP expects the market to exceed RMB 400 billion, with China accounting for over 75% of the market, and industrial manufacturing, household services, and medical rehabilitation becoming the core tracks.
Challenges and Risks
1)Technology out of control
The need to be vigilant about the ethical issues of robots similar to the Terminator, and calls for the establishment of a global regulatory framework to ensure that technology is for the better.
2)Employment Impact
McKinsey predicts that 800 million jobs will be replaced by robots globally by 2030, concentrating on repetitive labor areas such as manufacturing and services, but will give rise to emerging occupations such as robot operation and maintenance and algorithmic training, pushing upgrading the employment structure.
From the factory assembly to the family dance, from the industrial revolution to the "robot revolution", Musk's prediction outlines a picture of the future of human-machine collaboration. When the "army of robots" becomes the main force of productivity, can human society find new coordinates in the technological dividend and ethical balance? This upcoming change is full of opportunities, but also tests the wisdom of global collaboration and governance.