As AI models enter the era of application, embodied intelligence is accelerating, and humanoid robots may drive the next wave of technology.
On February 20, a team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Jacqueline Du released the latest research report, in-depth analysis of the competitive landscape and investment opportunities of the humanoid robot industry chain.
According to the report, the best investment opportunities currently seen are focused on the component side of the humanoid robot supply chain, especially upstream suppliers of harmonic reducer and actuator assembly are expected to benefit.
"We prefer actuator assemblers and harmonic reducer suppliers because of their product adoption certainty and technical barriers."
In addition, the report also compares the competitive situation between China and the United States in the humanoid robot industry chain. Goldman Sachs believes that the humanoid robot industry is in a critical period from R&D to large-scale production, and China and the United States are fiercely competing in this field. At present, the United States is temporarily leading in core technology, and China is expected to achieve breakthroughs in specific segments with a complete manufacturing system and a broad application market.
Participants in the industrial chain in China and the United States: Unitree Technology, Zhiyuan Robotics, etc. VS Tesla, Figure AI, etc
In terms of industrial chain maturity, the robot industry chain in the United States is relatively mature, especially in terms of high-end components (such as sensors, control systems, etc.) and AI technology.
China's industrial chain is developing rapidly, parts suppliers and system integrators are emerging, and they have advantages in actuators, harmonic reducers and other components, and the integrity and competitiveness of the industrial chain are gradually improving.
In terms of participants, Tesla is one of the core players in the humanoid robot industry chain in the United States, and its Optimus project has attracted much attention. In addition, startups such as Agility Robotics and Figure AI are also actively expanding into the field of humanoid robots.
There are many participants in China's humanoid robot industry chain, including Unitree Technology, Zhiyuan Robot, UBTECH Technology, etc. These companies have made significant progress in the research and development and commercialization of humanoid robot technology; In addition, China's traditional manufacturing enterprises are also actively deploying in the field of robots, such as Huawei, BYD, etc.
Sino-US industrial chain division of labor: body and parts manufacturing VS overall design and system integration
In terms of division of labor, companies such as Tesla in the United States focus on the overall design and system integration of robots, while some parts may rely on external suppliers. For example, Tesla may work with component suppliers in Asia or China to achieve rapid volume production and cost control.
The division of labor in China's robot industry chain is gradually improving. On the one hand, the company focuses on the R&D and manufacturing of the robot ontology; On the other hand, component suppliers are also on the rise, such as harmonic reducers and planetary roller screws and other key component fields.
Core technology in China and the United States: hardware manufacturing VS AI technology
At the core technology level, the report said that the technical advantages of the United States in the field of humanoid robots are mainly reflected in AI technology and system integration, and companies such as OpenAI, Google, and meta are at the forefront of robot basic models.
China, on the other hand, has significant advantages in hardware manufacturing and cost control, especially in component manufacturing and system integration, and is gradually narrowing the technological gap with the United States.
For example, Unitree's H1 humanoid robot's performance at this year's Spring Festival Gala demonstrated the positive progress of domestic humanoid robot technology, and the release of DeepSeek R1 provided a more cost-effective AI solution for humanoid robots.
Application scenarios: service industry and home VS industry and military
In terms of market size and potential, both China and the United States have great potential in the humanoid robot market.
According to the report, the market demand in the United States is mainly concentrated in high-end manufacturing and service industries, and the application scenarios focus on industrial and military applications, while China has a higher demand for humanoid robots in the fields of manufacturing upgrading and elderly care services, and the application scenarios are more focused on service and household applications.